Beyond Chargebacks: How Intelligent Risk Analysis Reduces the True Cost of Gaming, Mobility, and Subscriptions
- mnagler6
- Dec 23, 2025
- 4 min read
High-Risk, High-Cost? How Smart Risk Analysis Unlocks New Industries
The problem
Industries such as gaming, energy supply, mobility, and subscription-based businesses are no longer built on linear business models. They operate within digital, globally connected payment flows. At the same time, they face a dual challenge: high volumes and high risk.
The European online gaming and betting market alone reached a volume of around €47.9 billion in 2024¹. At the same time, reports from the European Payments Council (EPC) show that fraud techniques are becoming more sophisticated: social engineering, automated botnets, and attacks on payment infrastructures are on the rise².
A classic example: a failed direct debit does not only mean lost revenue. It triggers return fees, contract losses, reputational damage, and customer friction.
Why this matters
From the perspective of payment service providers, merchants, or high-risk business models, the conclusion is clear: when payments are unreliable, costs escalate rapidly — whether through chargebacks, fraud, or compliance overhead.
The European Banking Authority (EBA) reported a fraud rate of 0.014% by value for SEPA direct debits in the first half of 2023³ — low in absolute terms, but highly relevant given the scale of transaction volumes. At the same time, EU oversight bodies highlight the magnitude of the market: digital payments exceeded €1 trillion in volume in 2023⁴.
For business models such as subscriptions or mobility services that rely on recurring monthly payments, payment stability is non-negotiable. And the higher the risk profile — as seen in gaming or fleet-based mobility — the more critical smart risk assessment before authorization becomes.
What is changing now
Digital payment ecosystems are moving into the spotlight — not only as a technical concern, but as a competitive differentiator.
Key developments include:
Shared Fraud Intelligence: providers exchange anonymized risk signals across markets and platforms.
Real-time verification for direct debits and A2A payments: validation of account ownership, account existence, and risk profiles at the moment of payment.
API-first solutions that integrate seamlessly into merchant, PSP, or acquirer systems — minimizing UX friction.
In practice, this means a subscription provider can no longer rely solely on static credit checks. Instead, they must model specific payment flows, calculate risk dynamically, and collect payments using the right method at the right time.
In mobility, fleet models with thousands of vehicles generate tens of thousands of micro-payments, each with its own risk profile. In gaming, payments are often spontaneous, driven by users with high churn — making the risk of misuse particularly high.
Case 1: Gaming
The European Gaming and Betting Association (EGBA) reported online gaming revenues of approximately €13.5 billion GGR in 2024 among its members⁵. The total regulated European gambling market is estimated at around €137 billion, with the online share continuing to grow⁶.
For payment providers, this results in a challenging mix:
high volumes + complex regulation + elevated fraud and chargeback risk
A viable solution includes real-time risk scoring before authorization, shared fraud intelligence between platforms, and automated flagging mechanisms.
In this context, solutions such as Calytics’ DebitGuard can provide tangible value: real-time verification of SEPA direct debits, shared fraud intelligence, and Secure Direct Debit Technology — well suited for models where users onboard quickly, payments are frequent, and risk levels are high.
Case 2: Mobility
Fleet and mobility models handle vast numbers of transactions — fuel cards, charging points, subscriptions for shared vehicles. Each user or vehicle change creates a new payment relationship.
Here, payment risk equals business risk. When thousands of vehicles generate daily fees and transactions, even a small percentage of payment failures can drive costs significantly higher.
Direct bank payments (A2A or direct debit) offer advantages over cards due to lower failure rates and reduced friction. According to a GoCardless study, payment failure rates in subscription models dropped from ~10–25% with cards to ~3% with direct debit⁷.
Combined with risk checks and data analysis, fleet-based models become scalable. A platform like Calytics can assess key factors before authorization:Is the account active? Does the user profile align with vehicle usage? Is there a risk of returns or fraud?
This makes mobility not just hardware-driven — but payment-scalable.
Case 3: Subscriptions & Energy
In subscriptions (streaming, SaaS, energy contracts), payment failures and involuntary churn caused by failed collections are often underestimated.
According to GoCardless, 20–40% of total churn is caused by failed or unauthorized payments⁸. Energy providers and SaaS businesses therefore need more than customer acquisition — they need payment stability.
One approach is direct debit systems combined with real-time risk verification. Payments become a growth driver rather than a bottleneck. Shared fraud intelligence also plays a key role, particularly in B2B subscriptions or energy-intensive services with high financial risk.
What this means for integration and value
A modern payment risk model looks like this:
Data aggregation: transaction and behavioral data analyzed in real time.
Risk scoring: assessment of short- and long-term risks.
Shared intelligence: anonymized risk signals exchanged across PSPs, acquirers, and merchants.
Seamless integration & UX compliance: API-based checks embedded directly into the payment flow.
Scalability: performance across hundreds, thousands, or millions of monthly transactions.
With products like DebitGuard, Calytics does more than reduce payment risk — it enables growth in high-risk environments.
Why this matters now
As payments become digital, instant, and cross-border, risk profiles grow more complex — and more expensive if unmanaged. EU-wide data shows that while fraud rates are relatively low, transaction volumes are massive — meaning small inefficiencies quickly scale into major losses⁴.
At the same time, new business models are expanding in high-risk sectors: gaming, mobility, subscriptions, and energy. Success in these markets depends on aligning payments, risk management, and scalability.
If you are asking how your business can succeed in a high-risk payment environment, the answer is clear:not by avoiding risk — but by managing it intelligently.That is exactly what Calytics is built for.
Sources
Ecdn.hl.co – European online gaming & betting market sizehttps://www.hl.co.uk/shares/stock-market-news/2024/01/online-gambling-market-growth
European Payments Council – Fraud trends & payment securityhttps://www.europeanpaymentscouncil.eu/document-library
European Banking Authority – Fraud statistics, SEPA direct debitshttps://www.eba.europa.eu/activities/single-euro-payments-area
European Court of Auditors – Digital payments & EU financial flowshttps://www.eca.europa.eu
European Gaming and Betting Association (EGBA) – Market data 2024https://www.egba.eu
Euronews – European gambling market overviewhttps://www.euronews.com
GoCardless – Subscription payment failure rateshttps://gocardless.com/guides/posts/reduce-payment-failure/
GoCardless – Involuntary churn & failed paymentshttps://gocardless.com/resources/involuntary-churn/
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